Dmitriy Mendeleev’s Forecasts of the Population of Russia. and the Realities of its Present Development

Abstract

In his last work “The Sacred Thoughts” an outstanding Russian scientist and encyclopedist Dmitri Ivanovich Mendeleev has explored demographic processes, acting as an economist and sociologist. The author of this article examines methodical approaches and tools, repeats and continues calculations of Mendeleev using modern data and information technologies. Comparing Mendeleev’s forecasts of the size and age structure of population of Russia with the modern statistical data, the author discusses the reasons for the “failure” of forecasts. The arsenal of modern demographic tools can be supplemented with Mendeleev’s idea on using the formula (law) of the vertical parabola in studying the age structure (the dependence between the size of the group and age).