Epidemiology and Ecology of Toscana Virus Infection and Its Global Risk Distribution

Abstract

Toscana virus (TOSV), a member of the Phlebovirus genus transmitted by sandflies, is acknowledged for its capacity to cause neurological infections and is widely distributed across Mediterranean countries. The potential geographic distribution and risk to the human population remained obscure due to its neglected nature. We searched PubMed and Web of Science for articles published between 1 January 1971 and 30 June 2023 to extract data on TOSV detection in vectors, vertebrates and humans, clinical information of human patients, as well as the occurrence of two identified sandfly vectors for TOSV. We further predicted the global distribution of the two sandfly vectors, based on which the global risk of TOSV was projected, after incorporating the environmental, ecoclimatic, biological, and socioeconomic factors. A total of 1342 unique studies were retrieved, among which 389 met the selection criteria and were included for data extraction. TOSV infections were documented in 10 sandfly species and 14 species of vertebrates, as well as causing a total of 7571 human infections. The occurrence probabilities of two sandfly vectors have demonstrated the greatest contributions to the potential distribution of TOSV infection risk. This study provides a comprehensive overview of global TOSV distribution and potential risk zones. Future surveillance and intervention programs should prioritize high-risk areas based on updated quantitative analyses.

Keywords

• Toscana virus
• sandfly
• <i>Phlebovirus</i>
• machine learning