Successive Pandemic Waves with Different Virulent Strains and the Effects of Vaccination for SARS-CoV-2
Alcides Castro e Silva,
Américo Tristão Bernardes,
Eduardo Augusto Gonçalves Barbosa,
Igor Aparecido Santana das Chagas,
Wesley Dáttilo,
Alexandre Barbosa Reis,
Sérvio Pontes Ribeiro
Affiliations
Alcides Castro e Silva
Laboratory of Complexity Science, Department of Physics, Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto, ICEB, St. Quatro, 786, Bauxita, Ouro Preto 35400-000, MG, Brazil
Américo Tristão Bernardes
Laboratory of Complexity Science, Department of Physics, Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto, ICEB, St. Quatro, 786, Bauxita, Ouro Preto 35400-000, MG, Brazil
Eduardo Augusto Gonçalves Barbosa
Centro Federal de Educação Tecnológica de Minas Gerais, Graduate Program in Mathematical and Computational Modeling, Ave. Amazonas, 7675, Nova Gameleira, Belo Horizonte 30510-000, MG, Brazil
Igor Aparecido Santana das Chagas
Graduate Program in Biological Sciences, NUPEB, Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto, St. Três, 408-462, Bauxita, Ouro Preto 35400-000, MG, Brazil
Wesley Dáttilo
Instituto de Ecología AC, Red de Ecoetología, Carretera Antigua a Coatepec, 351, El Haya, Xalapa 91070, Veracruz, Mexico
Alexandre Barbosa Reis
Laboratory of Imunopatology, Department of Clinical Analysis, Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto, NUPEB, St. Três, 408-462, Bauxita, Ouro Preto 35400-000, MG, Brazil
Sérvio Pontes Ribeiro
Laboratory of Ecology of Diseases and Forests, Department of Biodiversity, Evolution and Environment, Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto, ICEB, St. Quatro, 786, Bauxita, Ouro Preto 35400-000, MG, Brazil
One hundred years after the flu pandemic of 1918, the world faces an outbreak of a new severe acute respiratory syndrome, caused by a novel coronavirus. With a high transmissibility, the pandemic has spread worldwide, creating a scenario of devastation in many countries. By the middle of 2021, about 3% of the world population had been infected and more than 4 million people had died. Different from the H1N1 pandemic, which had a deadly wave and ceased, the new disease is maintained by successive waves, mainly produced by new virus variants and the small number of vaccinated people. In the present work, we create a version of the SIR model using the spatial localization of persons, their movements, and considering social isolation probabilities. We discuss the effects of virus variants, and the role of vaccination rate in the pandemic dynamics. We show that, unless a global vaccination is implemented, we will have continuous waves of infections.
