Etablissement de scénarios alternatifs de valorisations alimentaires et non alimentaires des ressources céréalières wallonnes à l'horizon 2030

Abstract

Alternative scenarios for food and non-food uses of Walloon cereals by 2030. Topic. Based on the current uses of cereals grown in Wallonia (Belgium), various scenarios defining possible futures for the Walloon cereal sector have been created. Purpose. These scenarios lay the basis for research aiming at assessing the sustainability of food and non-food uses of cereals. Method. Based on contrasted hypotheses, four scenarios for the uses of Walloon cereals by 2030 have been defined with the support of stakeholders involved in all the steps of the chain. Results. The first scenario, called "Business-as-Usual", extrapolates trends from 15 years before 2010 and up to 2030. In the second scenario, called "Strategic", the current system is optimized from the environmental, economic and social point of view. The third and fourth scenarios break with current trends. The third scenario, called "Localization", considers an increased autonomy and the development of new cereal processing units in Wallonia. The fourth scenario, called "Globalization", focuses on a massive level of cereal export in response to an increasing demand from the global market and deals with high added-value products within Wallonia. Conclusions. Issues such as competition between food uses and non-food uses of cereals and of Walloon dependency on imports are addressed in these scenarios illustrating possible future situations, from food self-sufficiency to dramatic globalization, through the development of new outlets combining the adaptation of cropping practices, consumption, the evolution of habits and the use of new technologies.

Keywords

• Prospecting
• resource management
• cereals
• cereal products
• life cycle analysis
• regional development
• Belgium