Spillover: Mechanisms, Genetic Barriers, and the Role of Reservoirs in Emerging Pathogens

Abstract

Viral spillover represents the transmission of pathogen viruses from one species to another that can give rise to an outbreak. It is a critical concept that has gained increasing attention, particularly after the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, the term is often used inaccurately to describe events that do not meet the true definition of spillover. This review aims to clarify the proper use of the term and provides a detailed analysis of the mechanisms driving zoonotic spillover, with a focus on the genetic and environmental factors that enable viruses to adapt to new hosts. Key topics include viral genetic variability in reservoir species, biological barriers to cross-species transmission, and the factors that influence viral adaptation and spread in novel hosts. The review also examines the role of evolutionary processes such as mutation and epistasis, alongside ecological conditions that facilitate the emergence of new pathogens. Ultimately, it underscores the need for more accurate predictive models and improved surveillance to better anticipate and mitigate future spillover events.

Keywords

• spillover
• zoonoses
• viral evolution
• epistasis
• virus transmission