Статистика и экономика (Dec 2023)
Methods for Predicting the Costs of Maintaining Nuclear Heritage Facilities in а Safe State
Abstract
The relevance of the conducted research is determined by the need to control and forecast the costs of enterprises to maintain shutdown nuclear energy facilities in a save condition in order to solve budget planning problems. In the near future, an increase in operating expenses is expected due to an increase in the number of such facilities. To solve the problem econometric forecasting methods are used.Purpose of the research. This study is aimed to develop a methodology for estimating the costs of maintaining nuclear and radiation hazardous facilities in a safe condition and the safe storage of radioactive waste, considering the specifics of accounting at nuclear industry enterprises and forecasting such costs, taking into account plans for shutting down and decommissioning of facilities and removing accumulated radioactive waste from storage facilities in the future.Materials and methods. In the research there was developed the methodology of isolation from the overall structure costs, associated with maintaining shutdown facilities and storage facilities for radioactive waste of nuclear industry enterprises. A cumulative estimation of such costs has been carried out for facilities whose operation for the intended purpose has currently been discontinued. Based on obtained retrospective data, a correlation-regression model with structural changes was developed to predict the costs of maintaining nuclear energy facilities in a safe condition which are expected to be shut down in the future. The developed model allows considering the specifics of facilities, their level of radiation hazard and overall characteristics, the average level of wages at enterprises and the cost of resources.Results. Based on the plans for the shutdown and decommissioning of nuclear energy facilities and the disposal of radioactive waste from storage facilities, the costs of maintaining such facilities in a safe condition with a planning horizon up to 2050 have been forecasted. The results of calculations show that the costs for nuclear energy facilities (except for nuclear power plant units) will increase to 10 billion rubles per year by 2035 (in 2022 prices) and will significantly decrease after 2035 - up to 7.5 billion rubles per year. The reduction will be due to the transfer to a nuclear and radiation safe state of large facilities of radiochemical plants, as well as the conservation of sites for the placement of industrial uranium-graphite reactors. The costs of maintaining the storage facilities of accumulated radioactive waste in a safe condition will be reduced annually (almost linearly) as they are transferred to the disposal of the removed radioactive waste and the conservation of special radioactive waste facilities. By 2035, costs will be reduced from the current level of 5 billion rubles to 4.3 billion rubles per year.Conclusion. The results of the study confirm the high importance of the implementation of the Federal Target Program “Ensuring Nuclear and Radiation Safety for 2016-2020 and for the period up to 2035”, under which it is planned to decommission about 75 stopped nuclear and radiation hazardous facilities and transfer about 155 thousand cubic meters of radioactive waste to disposal.
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