Bütçe Açıkları ile Parasal Büyüme ve Enflasyon Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye İçin Bir Model Denemesi(The Relationship Among Budget Deficits, Monetary Growth and Inflations: A Model Application for Turkey)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to find an econometric relation between inflation and internal borrowing as an instrument for budget financing, and to assess the impact of a given internal borrowing on inflation. It is mainly argued that budget deficits financed through internal borrowing causes monetary expansion, which results in higher inflation. We want to show that the persistent inflation in Turkey has fiscal roots and any attempt of stopping inflation should imply fiscal adjustments. In this context, firstly, the relation between inflation and the instruments for budget financing (short term advances and internal borrowing) has theoretically been examined, and then, the situation in Turkey has been exhibited for the period 1989 to 2003. Finally, the relation between internal borrowing and inflation has econometrically been analyzed using the Simultaneous Equations System. In order to purify the effect of internal borrowing, two subsamples were processed, one of which includes short term advances from the central bank to the Treasury, and the other one of which does not. It is found that there is a negative relationship between outstanding internal debt and money supply and thereby inflation, except in the first subsample.

Keywords

• Bütçe Açığı
• Parasal Büyüme
• Enflasyon
• Eşanlı Denklem Sistemi
• Budget Deficit
• Monetary Growth
• Inflation
• Simultaneous Equations System