Alternative Initial Probability Tables for Elicitation of Bayesian Belief Networks

Abstract

Bayesian Belief Networks are used in many fields of application. Defining the conditional dependencies via conditional probability tables requires the elicitation of expert belief to fill these tables, which grow very large quickly. In this work, we propose two methods to prepare these tables based on a low number of input parameters using specific structures and one method to generate the table using probability tables of each relation of a child node with a certain parent. These tables can be used further as a starting point for elicitation.

Keywords

• Bayesian Belief Networks
• expert elicitation
• conditional probability