Monetary policy, income inequality, and the need for flexibility: Evidence from Ukraine

Abstract

The paper builds on the existing literature on monetary policy frameworks, exploring their role in balancing price stability, economic growth, and social equity. The aim is to analyze the influence of macroeconomic, in particular monetary, factors on income inequality in Ukraine. Using annual data from 1999 to 2021, the study employs multiple regression analysis to assess the impact of inflation, unemployment, monetization, and the key policy rate on income inequality. The results indicate that inflation and unemployment significantly contribute to rising inequality, while increased monetization and higher key policy rates reduce it. The findings underscore the need for a monetary policy framework that not only targets inflation but also addresses employment, as unemployment has a delayed yet substantial effect on inequality. Although the negative correlation between monetization and inequality suggests that efforts to curb inflation could inadvertently increase inequality, it also indicates that enhancing financial inclusion through increased liquidity could produce positive redistributive effects. Given the limitations of inflation targeting, including its tendency to overlook employment objectives, delayed effects on inequality, and potential contradiction with financial inclusion goals, a flexible approach to inflation targeting may be a more effective strategy for reducing income inequality in Ukraine.

Keywords

• inequality
• inflation
• interest rate
• monetary policy
• monetization
• unemployment