Human development and disaster mortality: evidence from India

Abstract

Abstract Natural disasters present substantial dangers to both human life and physical infrastructure. Although the human development index (HDI) is recognized for its pivotal role in mitigating mortality resulting from natural disasters, the exact extent of its impact on fatalities remains unclear. In this study, we investigate the relationship between HDI and fatalities resulting from floods and cyclones using panel data for 19 states of India spanning from 1983 to 2011. Employing Fixed Effects Poisson and Negative Binomial estimates, we establish a causal-effect relationship between HDI and disaster-related fatalities. Additionally, we utilize the Instrumental Variable Poisson (IV) model to address the endogeneity between HDI and fatalities. Our empirical findings indicate that states with higher HDI levels experience lower fatalities due to natural disasters. Furthermore, our results underscore the importance of critical policy discussions regarding the role of inequality-adjusted HDI, government responsiveness, and human capital development in disaster risk reduction strategies.