Scale Evolution of Electric Vehicles: A System Dynamics Approach

Abstract

Electrification of transportation has drawn increasing attention for the sake of low-pollution emission and high-fuel economy. Scientific scale forecasting of electric vehicles (EVs) is fundamental to promote EVs' integration for transportation and electric power industries. To capture the evolution pattern, a system dynamics (SD) approach is proposed to simulate and forecast the scale of the EVs. The proposed SD model can integrate various factors and quantify their relationship by comprehensive reasoning. Causal loop diagrams are designed to describe the relationship between factors and variables, and their quantifications are formulated by different business models and surveys. The main procedure for simulation includes survey, problem analysis, variable definition, feedback analysis, and model building. The effectiveness of the SD approach is verified by case studies. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis of the key factors, such as fuel price, subsidy policy, and so on, is also conducted.

Keywords

• Electric vehicles
• system dynamics
• scale simulation
• fuel price
• subsidy policy