Tool for supporting local energy strategies: forecasting energy plans with Artificial Neural Network in Umbria Region

Abstract

In order to reduce the greenhouse gas emission and to improve the energy efficiency of buildings, European Member States have to plan medium-to-long term strategies as reliable as possible. In this context, the present work aims to discuss the potentiality of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) as a support tool for medium-to-long term forecasting analysis of energy efficiency strategies in Umbria Region (central Italy) chosen as case study. Parametric energy simulations of several archetypes buildings were carried out in compliance with the current Italian regulations by changing the form, thermal properties, boundary conditions, and technical building systems. An ANN able to forecast primary energy need was trained to forecast the energy need of building-stock of Umbria Region and to evaluate the effectiveness of several potential energy actions (such as thermal coat or technical building systems replacement) over the years. Results confirm the potential of use of ANN as a support tool in energy forecasting analysis for local Authorities. ANN is capable of forecasting different future scenarios allowing correctly planning energy actions to be implemented as well as their priority. The results open to several scenarios of interest, such as the application of the same approach at national level.