The Retrieval Relationship between Lightning and Maximum Proxy Reflectivity Based on Random Forest

Abstract

Using the SWAN (Severe Weather Automatic Nowcasting) maximum reflectivity mosaic product and the lightning positioning observations (LPOs) from the ADTD (Advanced Direction and Time of Arrival Detection) system obtained during the 2018–2020 warm season (May to September), adding multi-characteristic LPO parameters in addition to lightning density, the retrieval relationship between lightning and maximum proxy reflectivity, deemed FRST, is constructed by using random forest. The FRST is compared with two empirical relationships from the GSI (Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation) assimilation system, and the results show that the FRST retrieved result better reflects the frequency distribution structure and peak interval of maximum reflectivity. The correlation coefficient between the FRST retrieved result and the observed maximum reflectivity is 0.7037, which is 3.38 (3.12) times greater than that of empirical GSI relationships. The root mean square error and the mean absolute error are 50.85% (28.05%) and 57.15% (35.19%) lower than those for the empirical GSI relationships, respectively. The equitable threat score (ETS) and bias score (BIAS) for FRST are better than those of the empirical GSI relationships in all three maximum reflectivity intervals.

Keywords

• lightning positioning observation
• maximum proxy reflectivity
• retrieval relationship
• random forest