Building The Prediction of Sales Evaluation on Exponential Smoothing using The OutSystems Platform

Abstract

To get a large profit in a company or business is to determine sales predictions for the next period. Prediction or forecasting is one of the keys to the success of sales because the predicted value of sales can be used as a reference to determine the order of goods, so there is no loss. Exponential smoothing method is a fairly superior forecasting method in long-term, medium-term and short-term forecasting. The data to be processed is sales data for the 2020-2022 period. The single exponential smoothing method was chosen because it can determine sales predictions for the next period with the smallest error value. The evaluation method used is MAPE, ME, MAD and MSE where this forecasting method is used to find the smallest error value. Based on the calculation results, the smallest error value obtained is ME at 62.8, MAD at 179.9, MSE at 55564.5, and MAPE at 9.20%. The value is at alpha 0.3. The next stage is to design a prediction system using the out-systems platform version 11.14.1 as a place to design the system. The test results of the system that has been designed to assist business owners in making decisions on product inventory estimates.

Keywords

• evaluation
• exponential smoothing
• forecasting
• prediction
• sales