Optimized deep neural network architectures for energy consumption and PV production forecasting

Abstract

Accurate time-series forecasting of energy consumption and photovoltaic (PV) production is essential for effective energy management and sustainability. Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) are effective tools for learning complex patterns in such data; however, optimizing their architecture remains a significant challenge. This paper introduces a novel hybrid optimization approach that integrates Genetic Algorithms (GA) and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) to enhance the DNN architecture for more accurate energy forecasting. The performance of GA-PSO is compared with leading hyperparameter optimization techniques, such as Bayesian Optimization and Evolutionary Strategy, across various optimization benchmarks and DNN hyperparameter tuning tasks. The study evaluates the GA-PSO-enhanced Optimized Deep Neural Network (ODNN) against traditional DNNs and state-of-the-art machine learning methods on multiple real-world energy forecasting tasks. The results demonstrate that ODNN outperforms the average performance of other methods, achieving a 27% improvement in forecasting accuracy and a 22% reduction in error across various metrics. These findings demonstrate the significant potential of GA-PSO as an effective tool to optimize DNN models in energy forecasting applications.

Keywords

• Photovoltaic production
• Deep neural networks
• Meta-heuristic algorithms
• Time series forecasting