Development and validation of a nomogram to predict survival after curative resection of nonmetastatic colorectal cancer

Abstract

Abstract Background We aimed to develop a clinical applicable nomogram to predict overall survival (OS) for patients with curatively resected nonmetastatic colorectal cancer. Methods Records from a retrospective cohort of 846 patients with complete information were used to construct the nomogram. The nomogram was validated in a prospective cohort of 379 patients. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated with concordance index (c‐index), time‐dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration plots, and decision curve analyses for discrimination, accuracy, calibration ability, and clinical net benefits respectively, and further compared with AJCC 8th TNM staging and the MSKCC nomogram. Risk stratification based on nomogram scores was performed with recursive partitioning analysis. Results The nomogram incorporated age, Glasgow prognostic score, pretreatment carcinoembryonic antigen levels, T staging, N staging, number of harvested lymph nodes, and histological grade. Compared with the 8th AJCC staging and MSKCC model, the nomogram had a statistically higher c‐index (0.77, 95% CI: 0.73‐0.80), bigger areas under the time‐dependent ROC curves (AUC at 3 years: 79; at 5 years: 79), and improved clinical net benefits. Calibration plots revealed no deviations from reference lines. All results were reproducible in the validation cohort. Nomogram‐based risk stratification successfully discriminated patients within each AJCC stage (all log‐rank P < .05). Conclusion We established an accurate, reliable, and easy‐to‐use nomogram to predict OS after curative resection for nonmetastatic colorectal cancer (CRC). The nomogram outperformed the 8th AJCC staging and the MSKCC model and could aid in personalized treatment and follow‐up strategy for CRC patients.

Keywords

• curative resection
• nomogram
• nonmetastatic colorectal cancer
• overall survival