Quantifying the potential impact of mass media campaigns on mitigating the spread of chikungunya virus during outbreaks in heterogeneous population

Abstract

In recent decades, media campaigns have played an important role in assessing, preventing and controlling infectious diseases. However, little progress has been made in quantifying its impact during chikungunya epidemics. In order to address this critical gap, this paper develops and analyzes a climate-based model of chikungunya virus disease that incorporates mass media campaigns and heterogeneous biting exposures. We obtained the basic reproduction numbers associated with the proposed model and determined the results of the threshold dynamics. We calibrated our model based on literature data and validated it with monthly observed chikungunya cases in Madhya Pradesh, India (2016–2017). The results show that mass media campaigns can significantly reduce the spread of the disease. It can also limit the occurrence of future outbreaks in the next few years. We also observed that media fatigue may reduce the impact of media to mitigate the spread of chikungunya virus.

Keywords

• Chikungunya fever
• Mathematical model
• Seasonality
• Mass media campaigns
• Heterogeneity