Predicting Rapid Intensification Events Following Tropical Cyclone Formation in the Western North Pacific Based on ECMWF Ensemble Warm Core Evolutions

Abstract

When the environmental conditions over the western North Pacific are favorable for tropical cyclone formation, a rapid intensification event will frequently follow formation. In this extension of our combined three-stage 7-day Weighted Analog Intensity Pacific prediction technique, the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Prediction ensemble predictions of the warm core magnitudes of pre-tropical cyclone circulations are utilized to define the Time-to-Formation (35 knots) and to estimate the Likely Storm Category. If that category is a Typhoon, the bifurcation version of our technique is modified to better predict the peak intensity by selecting only Cluster 1 analog storms with the largest peak intensities that are most likely to have under-gone rapid intensification. A second modification to improve the peak intensity magnitude and timing was to fit a cubic spline curve through the weighted-mean peak intensities of the Cluster 1 analogs. The performance of this modified technique has been evaluated for a sequence of western North Pacific tropical cyclones during 2019 in terms of: (i) Detection time in advance of formation; (ii) Accuracy of Time-to-Formation; (iii) Intensification stage prediction; and (iv) Peak intensity magnitude/timing. This modified technique would provide earlier guidance as to the threat of a Typhoon along the 15-day ensemble storm track forecast, which would be a benefit for risk management officials.

Keywords

• tropical cyclone intensity forecasts
• rapid intensification
• ensemble model predictions