Performance of Risk Assessment Models for Prevalent or Undiagnosed Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in a Multi-Ethnic Population—The Helius Study
Morgan O. Obura,
Irene GM van Valkengoed,
Femke Rutters,
Leen M. ’t Hart,
Simone P. Rauh,
Eric Moll van Charante,
Marieke B. Snijder,
Joline WJ Beulens
Affiliations
Morgan O. Obura
Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Amsterdam Public Health research institute, Amsterdam
Irene GM van Valkengoed
Amsterdam UMC, Academic Medical Center, Department of Public Health, Amsterdam Public Health research institute, Amsterdam
Femke Rutters
Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Amsterdam Public Health research institute, Amsterdam
Leen M. ’t Hart
Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Amsterdam Public Health research institute, Amsterdam; Department of Cell and Chemical Biology and Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, section Molecular Epidemiology, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden
Simone P. Rauh
Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Amsterdam Public Health research institute, Amsterdam
Eric Moll van Charante
Amsterdam UMC, Academic Medical Center, Department of Public Health, Amsterdam Public Health research institute, Amsterdam
Marieke B. Snijder
Amsterdam UMC, Academic Medical Center, Department of Public Health, Amsterdam Public Health research institute, Amsterdam; Amsterdam UMC, Academic Medical Center, Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Amsterdam Public Health research institute, Amsterdam
Joline WJ Beulens
Amsterdam UMC, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Amsterdam Public Health research institute, Amsterdam; Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, Univerisity Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht
Background: Most risk assessment models for type 2 diabetes (T2DM) have been developed in Caucasians and Asians; little is known about their performance in other ethnic groups. Objective(s): We aimed to identify existing models for the risk of prevalent or undiagnosed T2DM and externally validate them in a multi-ethnic population currently living in the Netherlands. Methods: A literature search to identify risk assessment models for prevalent or undiagnosed T2DM was performed in PubMed until December 2017. We validated these models in 4,547 Dutch, 3,035 South Asian Surinamese, 4,119 African Surinamese, 2,326 Ghanaian, 3,598 Turkish, and 3,894 Moroccan origin participants from the HELIUS (Healthy LIfe in an Urban Setting) cohort study performed in Amsterdam. Model performance was assessed in terms of discrimination (C-statistic) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test). We identified 25 studies containing 29 models for prevalent or undiagnosed T2DM. C-statistics varied between 0.77–0.92 in Dutch, 0.66–0.83 in South Asian Surinamese, 0.70–0.82 in African Surinamese, 0.61–0.81 in Ghanaian, 0.69–0.86 in Turkish, and 0.69–0.87 in the Moroccan populations. The C-statistics were generally lower among the South Asian Surinamese, African Surinamese, and Ghanaian populations and highest among the Dutch. Calibration was poor (Hosmer-Lemeshow p < 0.05) for all models except one. Conclusions: Generally, risk models for prevalent or undiagnosed T2DM show moderate to good discriminatory ability in different ethnic populations living in the Netherlands, but poor calibration. Therefore, these models should be recalibrated before use in clinical practice and should be adapted to the situation of the population they are intended to be used in.
