Establishment and validation of a risk assessment model for myopia among Chinese primary school students during the COVID-19 pandemic: A lasso regression approach

Shijie Chen; Lin Li; Liangyu He; Shanshan Xiong; Na Du; Huifang Chen; Lili Hou; Changjuan Zeng

Heliyon (Oct 2023)

Establishment and validation of a risk assessment model for myopia among Chinese primary school students during the COVID-19 pandemic: A lasso regression approach

Shijie Chen,
Lin Li,
Liangyu He,
Shanshan Xiong,
Na Du,
Huifang Chen,
Lili Hou,
Changjuan Zeng

Affiliations

Shijie Chen: Clinical Research Unit, Shanghai Ninth People's Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, 200011, China
Lin Li: Department of Ophthalmology, Ninth People's Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, Shanghai, 200011, China; Shanghai Key Laboratory of Orbital Diseases and Ocular Oncology, 200011, Shanghai, China
Liangyu He: Department of Oncology, Shanghai Tenth People's Hospital, Tongji University School of Medicine, Shanghai, 200072, China
Shanshan Xiong: Department of Nursing, Shanghai Ninth People's Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, 200011, China; Department of Ophthalmology, Ninth People's Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, Shanghai, 200011, China; Shanghai Key Laboratory of Orbital Diseases and Ocular Oncology, 200011, Shanghai, China
Na Du: Department of Nursing, Shanghai Ninth People's Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, 200011, China; Department of Ophthalmology, Ninth People's Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, Shanghai, 200011, China; Shanghai Key Laboratory of Orbital Diseases and Ocular Oncology, 200011, Shanghai, China
Huifang Chen: Department of Nursing, Shanghai Ninth People's Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, 200011, China; Department of Ophthalmology, Ninth People's Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, Shanghai, 200011, China; Shanghai Key Laboratory of Orbital Diseases and Ocular Oncology, 200011, Shanghai, China; Corresponding author. Department of Nursing, Shanghai Ninth People's Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, 200011, China.
Lili Hou: Department of Nursing, Shanghai Ninth People's Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, 200011, China; Corresponding author.
Changjuan Zeng: Department of Nursing, Shanghai Ninth People's Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, 200011, China; Department of Ophthalmology, Ninth People's Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, Shanghai, 200011, China; Shanghai Key Laboratory of Orbital Diseases and Ocular Oncology, 200011, Shanghai, China; Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Nursing, Shanghai, 200025, China; Corresponding author. Department of Nursing, Shanghai Ninth People's Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, 200011, China.

Journal volume & issue: Vol. 9, no. 10
p. e20638

Abstract

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Purpose: To construct a risk assessment model for forecasting the likelihood of myopia in elementary school students. Design: A cross-sectional study. Methods: This study utilized convenient sampling and questionnaire survey to collect data from eligible elementary students and their parents during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic period from March to December 2020. The data were divided into training and testing sets in a 7:3 ratio. Lasso regression was employed to screen variables for inclusion in the model to establish a generalized linear model, with a nomogram model as the final result. Results: The study included 1139 elementary students, comprising 54.5 % male and 45.5 % female participants. A total of 37 variables were obtained, which were analyzed using lasso regression. Cross-validation revealed that the best lambda value was 0.04201788. Five variables affecting myopia were identified: three risk and two protective factors. The three risk factors were student age (OR = 1.32), family location (urban vs. rural, OR = 2.33), and parents' occupation (compared with farmer: worker, OR = 2.03; teacher, OR = 1.62; medical worker, OR = 5.64; self-employed, OR = 1.78; civil servant, OR = 1.65; company employee, OR = 1.45; service industries, OR = 3.38; and others, OR = 3.20). The two protective factors were eye distance score (OR = 0.83) and eye health exercise score (OR = 0.95). The model was verified and showed good accuracy with an AUC of 0.778 and Brier score of 0.122 in addition to satisfactory clinical effects. Conclusions: The model effectively predicted the risk of myopia in elementary school students during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using this model, high-risk groups can be identified to provide a foundation for early intervention and follow-up, thereby reducing the incidence of myopia in this population.

Published in Heliyon

ISSN: 2405-8440 (Online)
Publisher: Elsevier
Country of publisher: United Kingdom
LCC subjects: Science: Science (General); Social Sciences: Social sciences (General)
Website: https://www.cell.com/heliyon/home

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