Development and verification of a nomogram for predicting the prognosis of resectable gastric cancer with outlet obstruction

Abstract

Abstract Background The prognosis of patients with gastric cancer (GC) with gastric outlet obstruction (GOO) after gastrectomy is highly variable. In this study, we aimed to develop a nomogram to predict the prognosis of these patients. Patients and Methods Data from 218 GC patients with GOO who underwent gastrectomy at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center were retrospectively collected as a training cohort. The data of 59 patients with the same diagnosis who underwent gastrectomy at the First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University were collected as an external verification cohort. A nomogram for the overall survival (OS) was developed using the Cox regression model in the training cohort, which was validated in a verification cohort. Results Multivariate analysis showed that the surgical procedure (P < 0.001), period of chemotherapy (P < 0.001), T stage (P = 0.006), N stage (P = 0.040), systemic immune-inflammatory index (SII) (P < 0.001), and fibrinogen level (P = 0.026) were independent factors affecting OS. The nomogram constructed on the aforementioned factors for predicting the 1- and 3-year OS achieved a Harrell’s concordance index (C-index) of 0.756 and 0.763 for the training and verification cohorts, respectively. Compared with the 8th American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) Tumour-Node-Metastasis (TNM) staging system, the nomogram had higher C-index values and areas under the curve (AUCs) and slightly higher net clinical benefit. Conclusion Compared to the 8th AJCC staging system, the newly developed nomogram showed superior performance in predicting the survival of GC patients with GOO after gastrectomy.

Keywords

• Gastric cancer
• Outlet obstruction
• Gastrectomy
• Nomogram
• Overall survival