Evaluation the Impact of Climate Change on Future Temperature Trend of Abhar Plain

Abstract

Temperature is one of the major parameters of plant growth and influences the amount of water requirement.Therefore, in this paper, the future temperature trend in the Abhar area was studied under the influence of climate change during the future time periods and compared with the observation period. In this way, the observation period of 1986-2010, the horizon near 2045-2011, the middle horizon of 2046-2070, and the far horizon of 2080-2100 was considered. The LARS-WG software was used in order to downscale, scenario file generation and general circulation atmospheric model simulation. In order to simulate the climate was used, the HadCM3 model by A2 scenario. In generating a scenario file, the numbers of both series (GCM PREDICTIONS and LARS-WG PARAMETERS) were considered, and the scenario file was generated for each of the three horizons future near, middle and far. The results of this study show the increasing trend of minimum, average and maximum temperature parameters over the next horizons. The amounts of the increase of the parameters studied during the mentioned horizons, respectively, in the parameter of the minimum annual temperature of 0.63,1.64 and 3.34°C, the mean annual temperature was 0.26, 0.72 and 1.46 °C and maximum temperature parameter will be 0.32, 0.55 and 0.81°C.

Keywords

• climate change
• temperature
• lars-wg model
• abhar plain