Simulation of COVID-19 Outbreak in Nanjing Lukou Airport Based on Complex Dynamical Networks

Abstract

The Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is still imposing a devastating impact on public health, the economy, and society. Predicting the development of epidemics and exploring the effects of various mitigation strategies have been a research focus in recent years. However, the spread simulation of COVID-19 in the dynamic social system is relatively unexplored. To address this issue, considering the outbreak of COVID-19 at Nanjing Lukou Airport in 2021, we constructed an artificial society of Nanjing Lukou Airport based on the Artificial societies, Computational experiments, and Parallel execution (ACP) approach. Specifically, the artificial society includes an environmental model, population model, contact networks model, disease spread model, and intervention strategy model. To reveal the dynamic variation of individuals in the airport, we first modeled the movement of passengers and designed an algorithm to generate the moving traces. Then, the mobile contact networks were constructed and aggregated with the static networks of staff and passengers. Finally, the complex dynamical network of contacts between individuals was generated. Based on the artificial society, we conducted large-scale computational experiments to study the spread characteristics of COVID-19 in an airport and to investigate the effects of different intervention strategies. Learned from the reproduction of the outbreak, it is found that the increase in cumulative incidence exhibits a linear growth mode, different from that (an exponential growth mode) in a static network. In terms of mitigation measures, promoting unmanned security checks and boarding in an airport is recommended, as to reduce contact behaviors between individuals and staff.

Keywords

• corona virus disease 2019 (covid-19)
• intervention strategy
• complex dynamical networks
• artificial society