Trends, Drivers, and Mitigation of CO2 Emissions in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area
Ya Zhou,
Kejun Li,
Sheng Liang,
Xuelan Zeng,
Yanpeng Cai,
Jing Meng,
Yuli Shan,
Dabo Guan,
Zhifeng Yang
Affiliations
Ya Zhou
Key Laboratory of City Cluster Environmental Safety and Green Development, Ministry of Education, School of Ecology, Environment and Resources, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China; Corresponding author.
Kejun Li
Key Laboratory of City Cluster Environmental Safety and Green Development, Ministry of Education, School of Ecology, Environment and Resources, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China
Sheng Liang
Key Laboratory of City Cluster Environmental Safety and Green Development, Ministry of Education, School of Ecology, Environment and Resources, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China
Xuelan Zeng
Key Laboratory of City Cluster Environmental Safety and Green Development, Ministry of Education, School of Ecology, Environment and Resources, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China
Yanpeng Cai
Key Laboratory of City Cluster Environmental Safety and Green Development, Ministry of Education, School of Ecology, Environment and Resources, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China
Jing Meng
The Bartlett School of Construction and Project Management, University College London, London WC1E 7HB, UK
Yuli Shan
Integrated Research for Energy, Environment and Society (IREES), Energy and Sustainability Research Institute Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen 9747 AG, Netherlands
Dabo Guan
Department of Earth System Sciences, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100080, China
Zhifeng Yang
Key Laboratory of City Cluster Environmental Safety and Green Development, Ministry of Education, School of Ecology, Environment and Resources, Guangdong University of Technology, Guangzhou 510006, China
The Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) is a national initiative aimed at building a world-class city cluster in China and whose trends, socioeconomic drivers of CO2 emissions, and mitigation pathways are of great significance to the high-quality regional economic development. This study compiled the CO2 emission inventories of the GBA from 2000 to 2019 and explored the key drivers of CO2 emissions using the logarithmic mean Divisia index method. The results showed that CO2 emissions in GBA slowed significantly after 2017 and have already been decoupled from gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Economic growth and energy intensity are the major factors driving and inhibiting the increase in GBA’s CO2 emissions, respectively. The energy production and heavy manufacturing sectors have reduced their roles in driving the growth of GBA’s CO2 emissions. GBA achieved remarkable results in low-carbon development through industrial restructuring and upgrading. Industrial upgrades in Shenzhen and Hong Kong and technological advances in Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and Foshan have significantly curbed the growth in the GBA’s CO2 emissions. The heterogeneity of cities in the GBA greatly increases the complexity of formalizing the allocation of emission reduction tasks and developing a roadmap for regional carbon neutrality. Graded emission reduction strategies and carbon peaking and neutrality policy recommendations for GBA cities are proposed. This study provides a scientific basis for the development of an action program for carbon peaking and neutrality in GBA cities and low-carbon development plans for other cities and regions.
