Space Weather (Aug 2024)
Predicting Interplanetary Shock Occurrence for Solar Cycle 25: Opportunities and Challenges in Space Weather Research
- Denny M. Oliveira,
- Robert C. Allen,
- Livia R. Alves,
- Séan P. Blake,
- Brett A. Carter,
- Dibyendu Chakrabarty,
- Giulia D’Angelo,
- Kevin Delano,
- Ezequiel Echer,
- Cristian P. Ferradas,
- Matt G. Finley,
- Bea Gallardo‐Lacourt,
- Dan Gershman,
- Jesper W. Gjerloev,
- John Bosco Habarulema,
- Michael D. Hartinger,
- Rajkumar Hajra,
- Hisashi Hayakawa,
- Liisa Juusola,
- Karl M. Laundal,
- Robert J. Leamon,
- Michael Madelaire,
- Miguel Martínez‐Ledesma,
- Scott M. McIntosh,
- Yoshizumi Miyoshi,
- Mark B. Moldwin,
- Emmanuel Nahayo,
- Dibyendu Nandy,
- Bhosale Nilam,
- Katariina Nykyri,
- William R. Paterson,
- Mirko Piersanti,
- Ermanno Pietropaolo,
- Craig J. Rodger,
- Trunali Shah,
- Andy W. Smith,
- Nandita Srivastava,
- Bruce T. Tsurutani,
- S. Tulasi Ram,
- Lisa A. Upton,
- Bhaskara Veenadhari,
- Sergio Vidal‐Luengo,
- Ari Viljanen,
- Sarah K. Vines,
- Vipin K. Yadav,
- Jeng‐Hwa Yee,
- James W. Weygand,
- Eftyhia Zesta
Affiliations
- Denny M. Oliveira
- Goddard Planetary Heliophysics Institute University of Maryland Baltimore MD USA
- Robert C. Allen
- Southwest Research Institute San Antonio TX USA
- Livia R. Alves
- National Institute for Space Research São José dos Campos Brazil
- Séan P. Blake
- School of Physics Trinity College Dublin Dublin Ireland
- Brett A. Carter
- SPACE Science Centre School of Science RMIT University Melbourne VIC Australia
- Dibyendu Chakrabarty
- Space and Atmospheric Science Division Physical Research Laboratory Ahmedabad Ahmedabad India
- Giulia D’Angelo
- Department of Physical and Chemical Sciences University of L'Aquila L'Aquila Italy
- Kevin Delano
- Goddard Planetary Heliophysics Institute University of Maryland Baltimore MD USA
- Ezequiel Echer
- National Institute for Space Research São José dos Campos Brazil
- Cristian P. Ferradas
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt MD USA
- Matt G. Finley
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt MD USA
- Bea Gallardo‐Lacourt
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt MD USA
- Dan Gershman
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt MD USA
- Jesper W. Gjerloev
- Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory Laurel MD USA
- John Bosco Habarulema
- South African National Space Agency Hermanus South Africa
- Michael D. Hartinger
- Space Science Institute Boulder CO USA
- Rajkumar Hajra
- CAS Key Laboratory of Geospace Environment School of Earth and Space Sciences University of Science and Technology of China Hefei People's Republic of China
- Hisashi Hayakawa
- Institute for Space‐Earth Environmental Research Nagoya University Nagoya Japan
- Liisa Juusola
- Finnish Meteorological Institute Helsinki Finland
- Karl M. Laundal
- Department of Physics and Technology Birkeland Centre for Space Science University of Bergen Bergen Norway
- Robert J. Leamon
- Goddard Planetary Heliophysics Institute University of Maryland Baltimore MD USA
- Michael Madelaire
- Department of Physics and Technology Birkeland Centre for Space Science University of Bergen Bergen Norway
- Miguel Martínez‐Ledesma
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt MD USA
- Scott M. McIntosh
- National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USA
- Yoshizumi Miyoshi
- Institute for Space‐Earth Environmental Research Nagoya University Nagoya Japan
- Mark B. Moldwin
- Department of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering University of Michigan Ann Arbor MI USA
- Emmanuel Nahayo
- South African National Space Agency Hermanus South Africa
- Dibyendu Nandy
- Department of Physical Sciences Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Kolkata Mohanpur West Bengal India
- Bhosale Nilam
- Indian Institute of Geomagnetism Navi Mumbai India
- Katariina Nykyri
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt MD USA
- William R. Paterson
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt MD USA
- Mirko Piersanti
- Department of Physical and Chemical Sciences University of L'Aquila L'Aquila Italy
- Ermanno Pietropaolo
- Department of Physical and Chemical Sciences University of L'Aquila L'Aquila Italy
- Craig J. Rodger
- Department of Physics University of Otago Dunedin New Zealand
- Trunali Shah
- Indian Institute of Geomagnetism Navi Mumbai India
- Andy W. Smith
- Department of Mathematics, Physics and Electrical Engineering Northumbria University Newcastle upon Tyne UK
- Nandita Srivastava
- Physical Research Laboratory Udaipur Solar Observatory Udaipur India
- Bruce T. Tsurutani
- Retired Pasadena CA USA
- S. Tulasi Ram
- Indian Institute of Geomagnetism Navi Mumbai India
- Lisa A. Upton
- Southwest Research Institute Boulder CO USA
- Bhaskara Veenadhari
- Indian Institute of Geomagnetism Navi Mumbai India
- Sergio Vidal‐Luengo
- Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics University of Colorado Boulder CO USA
- Ari Viljanen
- Finnish Meteorological Institute Helsinki Finland
- Sarah K. Vines
- Southwest Research Institute San Antonio TX USA
- Vipin K. Yadav
- Space Physics Laboratory (SPL) Vikram Sarabhai Space Centre (VSSC) Thiruvananthapuram India
- Jeng‐Hwa Yee
- Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory Laurel MD USA
- James W. Weygand
- Department of Earth, Planetary and Space Sciences University of California Los Angeles Los Angeles CA USA
- Eftyhia Zesta
- NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt MD USA
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1029/2024SW003964
- Journal volume & issue
-
Vol. 22,
no. 8
pp. n/a – n/a
Abstract
Abstract Interplanetary (IP) shocks are perturbations observed in the solar wind. IP shocks correlate well with solar activity, being more numerous during times of high sunspot numbers. Earth‐bound IP shocks cause many space weather effects that are promptly observed in geospace and on the ground. Such effects can pose considerable threats to human assets in space and on the ground, including satellites in the upper atmosphere and power infrastructure. Thus, it is of great interest to the space weather community to (a) keep an accurate catalog of shocks observed near Earth, and (b) be able to forecast shock occurrence as a function of the solar cycle (SC). In this work, we use a supervised machine learning regression model to predict the number of shocks expected in SC25 using three previously published sunspot predictions for the same cycle. We predict shock counts to be around 275 ± 10, which is ∼47% higher than the shock occurrence in SC24 (187 ± 8), but still smaller than the shock occurrence in SC23 (343 ± 12). With the perspective of having more IP shocks on the horizon for SC25, we briefly discuss many opportunities in space weather research for the remainder years of SC25. The next decade or so will bring unprecedented opportunities for research and forecasting effects in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere, and on the ground. As a result, we predict SC25 will offer excellent opportunities for shock occurrences and data availability for conducting space weather research and forecasting.
Keywords
