The modeling and analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic with vaccination and isolation: a case study of Italy

Abstract

The global spread of COVID-19 has not been effectively controlled. It poses a significant threat to public health and global economic development. This paper uses a mathematical model with vaccination and isolation treatment to study the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. In this paper, some basic properties of the model are analyzed. The control reproduction number of the model is calculated and the stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibria is analyzed. The parameters of the model are obtained by fitting the number of cases that were detected as positive for the virus, dead, and recovered between January 20 and June 20, 2021, in Italy. We found that vaccination better controlled the number of symptomatic infections. A sensitivity analysis of the control reproduction number has been performed. Numerical simulations demonstrate that reducing the contact rate of the population and increasing the isolation rate of the population are effective non-pharmaceutical control measures. We found that if the isolation rate of the population is reduced, a short-term decrease in the number of isolated individuals can lead to the disease not being controlled at a later stage. The analysis and simulations in this paper may provide some helpful suggestions for preventing and controlling COVID-19.

Keywords

• covid-19
• epidemic model
• vaccination
• isolation
• numerical simulation