A collapse risk assessment method for subway foundation pit based on cloud model and improved Dempster–Shafer evidence theory

Abstract

Abstract Collapse is a major engineering hazard in open-cut foundation pit construction, and risk assessment is crucial for considerably reducing engineering hazards. This study aims to address the ambiguity problem of qualitative index quantification and the failure of high-conflict evidence fusion in risk assessment. Thus, a fast-converging and high-reliability multi-source data fusion method based on the cloud model (CM) and improved Dempster–Shafer evidence theory is proposed. The method can achieve an accurate assessment of subway pit collapse risks. First, the CM is introduced to quantify the qualitative metrics. Then, a new correction parameter is defined for improving the conflicts among evidence bodies based on conflict degree, discrepancy degree and uncertainty, while a fine-tuning term is added to reduce the subjective effect of global focal element assignment. Finally, the risk assessment result is obtained according to the maximum affiliation principle. The method is successfully applied to Luochongwei Station, where the difference between the maximum value and the second largest value of the basic probability assignment is 0.624, and the global uncertainty degree is 0.087. Both values satisfy the decision evaluation condition; however, values of other methods only satisfy one or neither condition. In addition, the proposed method requires only four cycles to reach the steady state by fusing data of the same index, which has faster convergence compared with that of other methods. The proposed method has good universality and effectiveness in subway pit collapse risk assessment.