Mapping habitat suitability for Asiatic black bear and red panda in Makalu Barun National Park of Nepal from Maxent and GARP models

Abstract

Abstract Habitat evaluation is essential for managing wildlife populations and formulating conservation policies. With the rise of innovative powerful statistical techniques in partnership with Remote Sensing, GIS and GPS techniques, spatially explicit species distribution modeling (SDM) has rapidly grown in conservation biology. These models can help us to study habitat suitability at the scale of the species range, and are particularly useful for examining the overlapping habitat between sympatric species. Species presence points collected through field GPS observations, in conjunction with 13 different topographic, vegetation related, anthropogenic, and bioclimatic variables, as well as a land cover map with seven classification categories created by support vector machine (SVM) were used to implement Maxent and GARP ecological niche models. With the resulting ecological niche models, the suitable habitat for asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus) and red panda (Ailurus fulgens) in Nepal Makalu Barun National Park (MBNP) was predicted. All of the predictor variables were extracted from freely available remote sensing and publicly shared government data resources. The modeled results were validated by using an independent dataset. Analysis of the regularized training gain showed that the three most important environmental variables for habitat suitability were distance to settlement, elevation, and mean annual temperature. The habitat suitability modeling accuracy, characterized by the mean area under curve, was moderate for both species when GARP was used (0.791 for black bear and 0.786 for red panda), but was moderate for black bear (0.857), and high for red panda (0.920) when Maxent was used. The suitable habitat estimated by Maxent for black bear and red panda was 716 km2 and 343 km2 respectively, while the suitable area determined by GARP was 1074 km2 and 714 km2 respectively. Maxent predicted that the overlapping area was 83% of the red panda habitat and 40% of the black bear habitat, while GARP estimated 88% of the red panda habitat and 58% of the black bear habitat overlapped. The results of land cover exhibited that barren land covered the highest percentage of area in MBNP (36.0%) followed by forest (32.6%). Of the suitable habitat, both models indicated forest as the most preferred land cover for both species (63.7% for black bear and 61.6% for red panda from Maxent; 59.9% black bear and 58.8% for red panda from GARP). Maxent outperformed GARP in terms of habitat suitability modeling. The black bear showed higher habitat selectivity than red panda. We suggest that proper management should be given to the overlapping habitats in the buffer zone. For remote and inaccessible regions, the proposed methods are promising tools for wildlife management and conservation, deserving further popularization.