Towards net zero CO2 in 2050: An emission reduction pathway for organic soils in Germany

Abstract

The Paris Agreement reflects the global endeavour to limit the increase of global average temperature to 2 °C, better 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels to prevent dangerous climate change. This requires that global anthropogenic net carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are reduced to zero around 2050. The German Climate Protection Plan substantiates this goal and explicitly mentions peatlands, which make up 5 % of the total area under land use and emit 5.7 % of total annual greenhouse gas emissions in Germany. Based on inventory reporting and assumptions of land use change probability, we have developed emission reduction pathways for organic soils in Germany that on a national level comply with the IPCC 1.5 °C pathways. The more gradual pathway 1 requires the following interim (2030, 2040) and ultimate (2050) milestones: Cropland use stopped and all Cropland converted to Grassland by 2030; Water tables raised to the soil surface on 15 % / 60 % / 100 % of all Grassland, on 50 % / 75 % / 100 % of all Forest land, and ultimately on 2/3 of all Settlements and on 100 % of all Wetlands. Also a more direct pathway 2 without interim ‘moist’ water tables and the climate effect (radiative forcing) of different scenarios is presented.

Keywords

• agriculture
• climate change
• greenhouse gases
• land use
• mitigation
• peatlands
• transformation