Predicting the future of species assemblages under climate and land use land cover changes in Himalaya: A geospatial modelling approach

Abstract

Community ecology is driven by the patterns and drivers of species assemblages. Montane communities, in particular, are extremely vulnerable to climate change and are one of the first ecosystems to experience climate-induced biological responses. Loss of natural areas driven by human alteration of land use in montane areas may further alter the reorganization of regional assemblages. Several studies have shown latitudinal shifts in individual species as a result of climate change in the twenty-first century, however, the effects of these shifts on assemblages are yet unknown. Therefore, in the current study, we aim to examine the impacts of projected climate and Land Use Land Cover (LULC) changes on dominant species assemblages in western Himalaya. We investigated the spatio-temporal variations in species distribution and composition within the assemblages under climate and LULC changes in two sub-regions- temperate and alpine using ensemble bioclimatic envelope modelling and logistic regression models. While the climate change impacts were found to be more profound in the alpine region, the footprints of LULCC are more significant in temperate areas. The key findings of the study reveal- 1) Number of associated species within assemblages may reduce under climate change (CC) as an outcome of the declining extent of species bioclimatic envelopes; 2) climate change-induced emergence of novel assemblages especially in the alpine region, and 3) significant unfavourable impacts on species assemblages in the temperate region owing to the intersection of climate and LULC changes.LocationWestern Himalayan region, IndiaTime period1975 – 2015; projected year- 2070Major TaxaVascular plants

Keywords

• Mountain ecology
• Climate change
• Species-environment relationships
• Himalayan forests
• Vulnerability assessment