Seemingly unrelated time series model for forecasting the peak and short-term electricity demand: Evidence from the Kalman filtered Monte Carlo method

Abstract

In this extant paper, a multivariate time series model using the seemingly unrelated times series equation (SUTSE) framework is proposed to forecast the peak and short-term electricity demand using time series data from February 2, 2014, to August 2, 2018. Further the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, Gibbs Sampler, together with the Kalman Filter were applied to the SUTSE model to simulate the variances to predict the next day's peak and electricity demand. Relying on the study results, the running ergodic mean showed the convergence of the MCMC process. Before forecasting the peak and short-term electricity demand, a week's prediction from the 28th to the 2nd of August of 2018 was analyzed and it found that there is a possible decrease in the daily energy over time. Further, the forecast for the next day (August 3, 2018) was about 2187 MW and 44090 MWh for the peak and electricity demands respectively. Finally, the robustness of the SUTSE model was assessed in comparison to the SUTSE model without MCMC. Evidently, SUTSE with the MCMC method had recorded an accuracy of about 96% and 95.8% for Peak demand and daily energy respectively.

Keywords

• Seemingly unrelated times series model
• Peak electricity demand
• Short-term electricity demand