Runoff reconstruction and climatic influence with tree rings, in the Mayo river basin, Sonora, Mexico

Abstract

Dendrochronological series are reliable sources of information to analyze past hydrological and climatological variation that provides useful information for the management of water resources within basins. We analyzed dendrochronological series obtained from the upper Mayo River Basin using principal components analysis to determine a common climatic signal. Although the complete series extended for over 350 years, the representative period common to all series was from 1750 to 2014 (265 years) with an expressed population signal of over 0.85. Climate data (precipitation and temperature) were collected from the North American Land Data Assimilation System 2 model of the Land Data Assimilation System and hydrometrics records were obtained from the National Commission of Water in Mexico. The results of the response function showed an association of mean monthly temperature with the ring width series for the months of December of the previous year, May and October of the year of growth, and seasonally from January to July (r = -0.75, n = 36, p < 0.05). A significant response to rainfall of earlywood growth was observed for June, November, and December of the previous year, January and February of the growth year, and seasonally, from October of previous year to May of the current growth year (r = 0.70, n = 35, p < 0.05). Significant association also was found between earlywood and the accumulated runoff from October of the previous year to May of the growth year, which was used for reconstruction of the runoff flow between 1750 and 2014, which showed evidence of decadal drought. Significant correlation was found between the reconstructed runoff series, and the Southern Oscillation index (r = -0.42, n = 228, p < 0.05), but not significant with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index (r = 0.16, n = 115, p < 0.05). We also observed significant (p < 0.05) associations with the drought indices Palmer Drought Severity Index and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (r = 0.56, r = 0.41, respectively). Our study demonstrated the potential of assimilated data for dendroclimatic reconstructions and the feasibility of generating hydroclimatic information of extreme events that have not been recorded in the available climatic and hydrological instrumental records.

Keywords

• assimilated data
• dendrohydrology
• enso
• pinus arizonica