Implementasi Model Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average pada Proyeksi Komoditas Ekspor Timah

Abstract

The Bangka Belitung Archipelago is a potential area in the mining sector because many soils contain tin minerals and minerals that are spread evenly. Based on this phenomenon, this study uses the ARIMA model to analyze the prediction of the number of tin export commodities in the Bangka Belitung Islands Province. The time series data used in this study begins in January 2020 and ends in September 2022, with projected results ending in June 2023. Based on the analysis results, it is found that the ARIMA model (1,1,0) is the best model that can be used to project the value of tin export commodities in the Bangka Belitung Islands Province. This model was selected through the results of the correlogram test, which shows that the data is cut off at the second lag for the Autocorrelation Function (ACF) and Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF) plots. This projection analysis was carried out after passing the stationarity test first through the Augmented Dicky Fuller (ADF) test. Through this test, it is found that the data is stationary at the first difference, and the prob value is 0.0003 with the projected result that there will be an increase in the number of exports of tin commodities with a total increase of 0.03%. The results of this analysis can certainly be part of preventive actions for the government to be able to assist the country in increasing the country’s foreign exchange through increasing export commodities.

Keywords

• projection
• arima
• time series
• tin