Measuring Likely Voters. A Model for Predicting Electoral Participation in Romanian Presidential Elections

Abstract

Predicting voter turnout by estimating the proportion of likely votersas accurately as possible is a challenging task and it is debated both in literatureand among experts actively involved in the field of sociological research andpolling organizations. While there are several vari-ables that influence turnout, and also several meth-ods and models that have been put into practice overtime, in reality there is no magic formula for correct-ly measuring, before an election, the percentage ofindividuals that are most likely to vote. Each nation-al context comes with particular variables, as wellas historical factors and demographic dynamics thatneed to be taken into account. We propose a modelbuilt on pre-election survey data and on past officialelection statistics, which has been tested and provenviable in the context of the 2019 Romanian presiden-tial election.

Keywords

• electoral participation
• likely voters
• predicting turnout
• romania