Estimation of the Impact of the New International Land and Sea Trade Channel on the Development of the Trade Potential of 8 Domestic Provinces and Cities

Abstract

The new international land and sea trade channel is an important part of China’s “The Belt and Road Initiative” going south, with Chongqing as the operating center, and 7 provinces and cities such as Guangxi, Guizhou, and Gansu as key nodes. Gravity Model of Trade is adopted to analyze the issue of trade creation effect and trade transfer effect in the flow of China-ASEAN trade in detail. According to the theoretical trade value calculated by the export gravity model, the actual trade value was divided by the theoretical value to calculate the trade potential coefficient, which has been applied to measure the trade potential of export of 8 provinces and cities to the ten ASEAN countries. It is concluded that trading partners are in different types ranging from “potential remodeling”, “potential expansion” to “great potential”, and heterogeneity tests are performed to prove the self-consistency of the effect measurement. Further, it is proposed that to further develop trade relations, we must develop positive factors to promote export trade, stimulate trade needs of partner countries, and actively develop trade market countermeasures.