Multi-objective optimization method for medium and long-term power supply and demand balance considering the spatiotemporal correlation of source and load

Abstract

The medium and long-term supply-demand imbalance of the power system in the context of the new power system is becoming more and more prominent due to the fluctuation and intermittency brought about by the high proportion of new energy sources connected to the grid. In this regard, a multi-objective power supply-demand balance optimization method considering the spatiotemporal correlation of source and load is proposed in this work. First, the autocorrelation and inter-correlation characteristics of source and load are analyzed. On this basis, a multi-dimensional scenario set construction method considering the spatiotemporal correlation of source and load is proposed. Then, the planning capacity of each regional power source and the system operation under each scenario are taken as the optimization variables. Renewable energy electricity curtailment, equivalent annual total cost, and inter-region transmission electricity are taken as the optimization objectives. Various constraints such as power source planning and operation, power balance, inter-region power transmission, and renewable energy power curtailment rate are considered comprehensively. The optimization method for the medium and long-term power supply and demand balance is proposed. Finally, the method is applied to Hunan Province, China to guide power planning. The results show that compared with traditional multi-dimensional correlation scene construction methods, the average probability density functions error of wind turbine output, photovoltaic output, and load constructed in this work decrease by 44.08 %, 73.64 %, and 57.54 %, respectively. It takes into account the regional, temporal, temporal autocorrelation, and inter-correlation of the source and load, and has similar characteristics to historical data. Compared with traditional planning that only considers economy, the optimization plan for power supply and demand balance in this work reduces electricity curtailment and inter-region transmission by 97.04 % and 72.71 %, respectively, balancing renewable energy consumption, economy, and regional independent balancing indicators.

Keywords

• Power optimization
• Power planning
• Multiple uncertainty
• Power balance analysis
• Scenario set construction