Impact of Climate Change on the Habitat Distribution of <i>Decapterus macarellus</i> in the South China Sea

Abstract

This study examines the potential distribution of Mackerel scad (Decapterus macarellus) in the South China Sea under future climate scenarios (SSP 1.26, SSP 2.45, SSP 5.85) using an ensemble species distribution model (SDM). Key environmental variables included sea surface salinity (SSS), sea surface height (SSH), sea surface temperature (SST), mixed-layer depth (MLD), chlorophyll-a concentration (CHL), and sea-bottom temperature (SBT). Results show that SST and MLD are the primary drivers of habitat suitability, with current suitable habitats concentrated in the northern offshore areas. Projections for the 2050s and 2090s indicate a reduction in suitable habitats, particularly under high-emission scenarios, with more gradual reductions under low-emission scenarios. Habitat loss is most pronounced in the northern South China Sea, while the central region is projected to see an expansion of suitable habitats. These findings highlight the climate impact on D. macarellus distribution and inform sustainable management strategies for the species in the region.

Keywords

• SDMs
• <i>Decapterus macarellus</i>
• the South China Sea
• climate change
• environmental factors