Course of Cumulative Cost Curve (CCCC) as a Method of CAPEX Prediction in Selected Construction Projects

Abstract

Forecasting the actual cost of the implementation of a construction project is of great importance in the case of technical management and enables financial resources to be initially maintained in a controlled manner and in a way that is as close as possible to the actual state. Based on the analysis of the developed knowledge base, which contains data from 612 reports of the Bank Investment Supervision regarding 45 construction projects from 2006 to 2023 with a total value of over PLN 1,300,000,000, best-fit curves were determined, and the expected area of the cumulative actual cost of selected construction projects was specified. The obtained polynomial functions and graphs of real areas of cost curves (in the form of nomograms) constitute a reliable graphical representation that enables the application of research results in typologically similar groups/sectors of the construction industry. The elaborated course of the cumulative cost curve (CCCC) as a method of CAPEX prediction in selected construction projects stands for a combined approach of the S-curve, polynomial functions, and the best-fit area of cumulative earned cost. The research used scientific tools that can be practically and easily used by both managers and participants of the investment process.

Keywords

• construction project
• course of cumulative cost curve (CCCC)
• capital cost estimation (CAPEX)
• S-curve
• EVM