A Machine Learning Framework for Enhancing Short-Term Water Demand Forecasting Using Attention-BiLSTM Networks Integrated with XGBoost Residual Correction

Abstract

Accurate short-term water demand forecasting assumes a pivotal role in optimizing water supply control strategies, constituting a cornerstone of effective water management. In recent times, the rise of machine learning technologies has ushered in hybrid models that exhibit superior performance in this domain. Given the intrinsic non-linear fluctuations and variations in short-term water demand sequences, achieving precise forecasts presents a formidable challenge. Against this backdrop, this study introduces an innovative machine learning framework for short-term water demand prediction. The maximal information coefficient (MIC) is employed to select high-quality input features. A deep learning architecture is devised, featuring an Attention-BiLSTM network. This design leverages attention weights and the bidirectional information in historical sequences to highlight influential factors and enhance predictive capabilities. The integration of the XGBoost algorithm as a residual correction module further bolsters the model’s performance by refining predicted results through error simulation. Hyper-parameter configurations are fine-tuned using the Keras Tuner and random parameter search. Through rigorous performance comparison with benchmark models, the superiority and stability of this method are conclusively demonstrated. The attained results unequivocally establish that this approach outperforms other models in terms of predictive accuracy, stability, and generalization capabilities, with MAE, RMSE, MAPE, and NSE values of 544 m3/h, 915 m3/h, 1.00%, and 0.99, respectively. The study reveals that the incorporation of important features selected by the MIC, followed by their integration into the attention mechanism, essentially subjects these features to a secondary filtration. While this enhances model performance, the potential for improvement remains limited. Our proposed forecasting framework offers a fresh perspective and contribution to the short-term water resource scheduling in smart water management systems.

Keywords

• short-term
• water demand forecasting
• MIC
• attention mechanism
• BiLSTM network
• XGBoost