Beef, lamb, pork and poultry meat commodity prices: Historical fluctuations and synchronisation with a focus on recent global crises

Abstract

This work addresses short-run fluctuations of nominal global meat commodity prices, that is, beef, lamb, pork, and poultry, from January 1980 to October 2023, thus including the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. It tries to answer the following questions: how do fluctuations in meat commodity prices behave historically? Are meat commodity prices synchronised? Do their co-movements show specific features during recent global crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russo-Ukrainian war? Using a 'classical' framework of cycle analysis, the work provides a series of turning points upon which statistics on phase and cycle durations and amplitudes are generated. Care is put into highlighting the pros and cons of employing algorithms based on turning points instead of harmonic models. Global nominal meat prices feature cycles lasting between 3.8 and 4.6 years on average. Pork prices, contrary to other meat prices, are characterised by a highly volatile and prevalently contractionary behaviour. From a policy perspective, the article provides results on the synchronisation of couples of meat prices and on the existence of a common meat price cycle both historically and during the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Keywords

• classical cycle
• covid-19 pandemic
• meat price cycle
• meat price synchronisation
• russo-ukrainian war