Research on electric vehicle ownership prediction based on BASS model: A case study of Yunnan Province

Abstract

In order to forecast the number of electric vehicles in Yunnan Province, based on BASS model, this paper uses extensive analogy method to explore the acquisition of m, p and q model parameters, forecasts the purchasing power of the market, and estimates the innovation coefficient and imitation coefficient from three aspects of high potential scenario, base potential scenario and low potential scenario. The number of new energy electric vehicles in Yunnan Province in three scenarios from 2022 to 2035 is predicted. The forecast results show that under the condition of high potential development, the number of new energy vehicles in Yunnan Province will reach 409,600 in 2022; in the case of benchmark potential development, the number of new energy vehicles will reach 291,400 in 2022; in the case of low potential development, the number of new energy vehicles in Yunnan Province will reach 155,400 in 2022.