Frontiers in Climate (Jun 2023)
Recent applications and potential of near-term (interannual to decadal) climate predictions
- Terence J. O'Kane,
- Adam A. Scaife,
- Adam A. Scaife,
- Yochanan Kushnir,
- Anca Brookshaw,
- Carlo Buontempo,
- David Carlin,
- Richenda K. Connell,
- Francisco Doblas-Reyes,
- Francisco Doblas-Reyes,
- Nick Dunstone,
- Kristian Förster,
- Kristian Förster,
- Antonio Graça,
- Alistair J. Hobday,
- Vassili Kitsios,
- Larissa van der Laan,
- Julia Lockwood,
- William J. Merryfield,
- Andreas Paxian,
- Mark R. Payne,
- M. Catherine Reader,
- Geoffrey R. Saville,
- Geoffrey R. Saville,
- Doug Smith,
- Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali,
- Nico Caltabiano,
- Jessie Carman,
- Ed Hawkins,
- Noel Keenlyside,
- Arun Kumar,
- Daniela Matei,
- Holger Pohlmann,
- Scott Power,
- Scott Power,
- Marilyn Raphael,
- Michael Sparrow,
- Bo Wu
Affiliations
- Terence J. O'Kane
- CSIRO Environment, Hobart, TAS, Australia
- Adam A. Scaife
- Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
- Adam A. Scaife
- College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, Exeter University, Exeter, United Kingdom
- Yochanan Kushnir
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Earth Institute, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States
- Anca Brookshaw
- European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Reading, United Kingdom
- Carlo Buontempo
- European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Reading, United Kingdom
- David Carlin
- United Nations, New York, NY, United States
- Richenda K. Connell
- Willis Towers Watson, New York, NY, United States
- Francisco Doblas-Reyes
- Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain
- Francisco Doblas-Reyes
- Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain
- Nick Dunstone
- Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
- Kristian Förster
- 0Institute for Hydrology and Water Resources Management, Leibniz University Hannover, Hannover, Germany
- Kristian Förster
- 1Institute of Ecology and Landscape, Weihenstephan-Triesdorf University of Applied Sciences, Freising, Germany
- Antonio Graça
- 2Sogrape Vinhos, Avintes, Portugal
- Alistair J. Hobday
- CSIRO Environment, Hobart, TAS, Australia
- Vassili Kitsios
- 3CSIRO Environment, Aspendale, VIC, Australia
- Larissa van der Laan
- 0Institute for Hydrology and Water Resources Management, Leibniz University Hannover, Hannover, Germany
- Julia Lockwood
- Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
- William J. Merryfield
- 4Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
- Andreas Paxian
- 5Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), Offenbach, Germany
- Mark R. Payne
- 6Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark
- M. Catherine Reader
- 4Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
- Geoffrey R. Saville
- Willis Towers Watson, New York, NY, United States
- Geoffrey R. Saville
- 7Caniopus Group, London, United Kingdom
- Doug Smith
- Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
- Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali
- Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, Spain
- Nico Caltabiano
- 8WCRP Secretariat, WMO, Geneva, Switzerland
- Jessie Carman
- 9NOAA/Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research/Weather Program Office, Silver Spring, MD, United States
- Ed Hawkins
- 0National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
- Noel Keenlyside
- 1Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
- Arun Kumar
- 2NOAA Climate Prediction Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), College Park, MD, United States
- Daniela Matei
- 3Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
- Holger Pohlmann
- 5Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), Offenbach, Germany
- Scott Power
- 4Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Townsville, QLD, Australia
- Scott Power
- 5Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
- Marilyn Raphael
- 6Department of Geography, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States
- Michael Sparrow
- 8WCRP Secretariat, WMO, Geneva, Switzerland
- Bo Wu
- 7State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1121626
- Journal volume & issue
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Vol. 5
Abstract
Following efforts from leading centres for climate forecasting, sustained routine operational near-term climate predictions (NTCP) are now produced that bridge the gap between seasonal forecasts and climate change projections offering the prospect of seamless climate services. Though NTCP is a new area of climate science and active research is taking place to increase understanding of the processes and mechanisms required to produce skillful predictions, this significant technical achievement combines advances in initialisation with ensemble prediction of future climate up to a decade ahead. With a growing NTCP database, the predictability of the evolving externally-forced and internally-generated components of the climate system can now be quantified. Decision-makers in key sectors of the economy can now begin to assess the utility of these products for informing climate risk and for planning adaptation and resilience strategies up to a decade into the future. Here, case studies are presented from finance and economics, water management, agriculture and fisheries management demonstrating the emerging utility and potential of operational NTCP to inform strategic planning across a broad range of applications in key sectors of the global economy.
Keywords
- decadal predictions
- climate risk
- climate forecast application
- climate forecast information
- operational climate prediction
