What’s new in dementia risk prediction modelling? An updated systematic review

Abstract

Introduction Identifying individuals at high risk of dementia is critical to optimized clinical care, formulating effective preventative strategies, and determining eligibility for clinical trials. Since our previous systematic reviews in 2010 and 2015, there has been a surge in dementia risk prediction modelling. The aim of this study is to update our previous reviews to explore, and critically review, new developments in dementia risk modelling. Methods MEDLINE, Embase, Scopus, and Web of Science were searched from March 2014 to June 2022. Studies were included if they were population or community-based cohorts (including electronic health record data), had developed a model for predicting late-life incident dementia and included model performance indices such as discrimination, calibration, or external validation. Results In total, 9,209 articles were identified from the electronic search, of which 74 met the inclusion criteria. We found a substantial increase in the number of new models published from 2014 (>50 new models), including an increase in the number of models developed using machine learning. Over 450 unique predictor (component) variables have been tested. Nineteen studies (26%) undertook external validation of newly developed or existing models, with mixed results. For the first time, models have also been developed in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) and others validated in racial and ethnic minority groups. Conclusion The literature on dementia risk prediction modelling is rapidly evolving with new analytical developments and testing in LMICs. However, it is still challenging to make recommendations about which one model is the most suitable for routine use in a clinical setting. There is an urgent need to develop a suitable, robust, validated risk prediction model in the general population that can be widely implemented in clinical practice to improve dementia prevention.