Acta Biomedica Scientifica (May 2013)
RESEARCH OF FACTORS AFFECTING THE DYNAMICS OF DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES IN TRANSBAIKAL TERRITORY
Abstract
The processes of natural and mechanical movement of the population observed in the Transbaikal Territory in the past two decades testify to the extremely negative trends in the formation of the demographic potential of the region. Among these trends the following ones should be primarily named: low birth rate, high mortality rate, especially among men of working age, steady decrease in the proportion of rural population in the total population of the region, which is very unfavorable effect on reproduction (fertility in rural areas up to 1,3-1,4 times higher than in urban areas). The share of persons of retirement age increases. Negative changes occur in the family institution: increasing desire for small families. The attitude related to marriage and marital status changes: the stability of married unions decrease. The out-migration enhances, which entails, even natural growth, decline in population. These circumstances do not meet the economic and geopolitical interests. For investigation the factors affecting reproductive behavior in the Transbaikal Territory, the taxonomic method of multivariate analysis and the correlation analysis have been applied. Six groups of factors have been formed, which include: a healthy way of life, education, economic factors, habitat, social and domestic factors, social stability and moral-psychological factors. Results indicated that the greatest impact on the birth rate by factors: "Early childhood education" (r = 0,87); «Spiritual and moral education» (r = 0,76), «Housing Affordability» (r = -0,7) (for describing factor chosen as destabilizing indicators such as the proportion of families standing on the account, as in need of accommodation, the percentage of families, who have expressed a desire to participate in the sub-program "Housing for young families", but didn't get help), "Safety and the level of crime" (r = -0,52); "Material well-being" (r = -0,45). In 2013 the Russian Government approved the State Program of Russian Federation "Socio-economic development of the Far East and the Baikal region". Implementation of the program can be successful only on condition of the normalization of demographic trends and social conditions.
