Identification and scenario prediction of degree of wetland damage in Guangxi based on the CA-Markov model

Ze Zhang; Baoqing Hu; Weiguo Jiang; Haihong Qiu

Ecological Indicators (Aug 2021)

Identification and scenario prediction of degree of wetland damage in Guangxi based on the CA-Markov model

Ze Zhang,
Baoqing Hu,
Weiguo Jiang,
Haihong Qiu

Affiliations

Ze Zhang: Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Resource Use in Beibu Gulf, Ministry of Education, Nanning Normal University, Nanning 530001, China; Guangxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Intelligent Simulation, Nanning Normal University, Nanning 530001, China; School of Geography and Planning, Nanning Normal University, Nanning 530001, China
Baoqing Hu: Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Resource Use in Beibu Gulf, Ministry of Education, Nanning Normal University, Nanning 530001, China; Guangxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Intelligent Simulation, Nanning Normal University, Nanning 530001, China; Corresponding author at: Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Resource Use in Beibu Gulf, Ministry of Education, Nanning Normal University, Nanning 530001, China.
Weiguo Jiang: State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal Untiversity, Bejing 100875, China; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes ana Resource Ecology, Faculty of Gtographical Sctence, Beijing Normal Untversty, Beijing 100875, China
Haihong Qiu: Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Resource Use in Beibu Gulf, Ministry of Education, Nanning Normal University, Nanning 530001, China; Guangxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Intelligent Simulation, Nanning Normal University, Nanning 530001, China; School of Geography and Planning, Nanning Normal University, Nanning 530001, China

Journal volume & issue: Vol. 127
p. 107764

Abstract

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Wetlands are an important transitional ecosystem, and they play an important role in maintaining ecological balance. However, human activities and climate change have led to a decrease in wetlands. Therefore, to explore the degree of damage and assess the future trends of Guangxi wetlands, this study used the Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud platform, and the support vector machine algorithm was selected for comparison and analysis to simulate the accuracy of land cover. GIS was used to analyse the evolution and degree of damage of nearly 30 Guangxi wetlands. The geographic detector model was used to explore the driving mechanism, and finally, the CA-Markov model and multi-scenario simulation were used to predict the wetland evolution from 2018 to 2035 to reveal the future direction of development. The results showed that (1) From 1990 to 2018, paddy fields accounted for the largest proportion of wetlands in Guangxi. In the past 30 years, the total area of wetlands in Guangxi has been degraded, with a total decrease of 983.33 km2. (2) The degree of wetland damage results showed that the total damaged area was greater than the total restored area, The wetland damage in Nanning city was the most serious, with an area difference of 503.22 km2 between the damaged and restored areas. (3) The analysis of the driving mechanism of wetland damage showed that distance from cities and towns, average precipitation and population density were the main driving factors. (4) The spatial distribution of natural development and economic construction in 2035 will be slightly damaged; additionally, the spatial distribution of ecological protection will expand as a whole. From 2025 to 2035, wetlands will be basically stable under Natural Development Scenario (NDS), degraded each year under the Economic Construction Scenario (ECS), and steadily increased each year under Ecological Protection Scenario (EPS).

Published in Ecological Indicators

ISSN: 1470-160X (Print); 1872-7034 (Online)
Publisher: Elsevier
Country of publisher: United Kingdom
LCC subjects: Science: Biology (General): Ecology
Website: https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/ecological-indicators

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