Effects of experiencing the COVID-19 pandemic on optimistically biased belief updating

Abstract

Optimistically biased belief updating is essential for mental health and resilience in adversity. Here, we asked how experiencing the COVID-19 pandemic affected optimism biases in updating beliefs about the future. One hundred and twenty-three participants estimated the risk of experiencing adverse future life events in the face of belief-disconfirming evidence either outside the pandemic (n=58) or during the pandemic (n=65). While belief updating was optimistically biased and Reinforcement-learning-like outside the pandemic, the bias faded, and belief updating became more rational Bayesian-like during the pandemic. This malleability of anticipating the future during the COVID-19 pandemic was further underpinned by a lower integration of positive belief-disconfirming information, fewer but stronger negative estimations, and more confidence in base rates. The findings offer a window into the putative cognitive mechanisms of belief updating during the COVID-19 pandemic, driven more by quantifying the uncertainty of the future than by the motivational salience of optimistic outlooks.

Keywords

• belief-updating
• Covid-19
• optimism bias
• reinforcement-learning
• Bayesian modeling
• computational modeling