Modelling the Impact of Temperature under Climate Change Scenarios on Native and Invasive Vascular Vegetation on the Antarctic Peninsula and Surrounding Islands

Abstract

There are only two species of native vascular plants found on the Antarctic Peninsula and the surrounding islands, Deschampsia Antarctica, and Colobanthus quitensis. Poa annua, a successful invasive species, poses a threat to D. antarctica and C. quitensis. This region may experience extreme changes in biodiversity due to climate change over the next 100 years. This study explores the relationship between vascular vegetation and changing temperature on the Antarctic Peninsula and uses a systems modelling approach to account for three climate change scenarios over a 100-year period. The results of this study indicate that (1) D. antarctica, C. quitensis, and P. annua will likely be impacted by temperature increases, and greater temperature increases will facilitate more rapid species expansion, (2) in all scenarios D. antarctica species occurrences increase to higher values compared to C. quitensis and P. annua, suggesting that D. antarctica populations may be more successful at expanding into newly forming ice-free areas, (3) C. quitensis may be more vulnerable to the spread of P. annua than D. antarctica if less extreme warming occurs, and (4) C. quitensis relative growth rate is capable of reaching higher values than D. antarctica and P. annua, but only under extreme warming conditions.

Keywords

• Antarctic Peninsula
• Antarctic vascular vegetation
• climate change
• geographic information systems
• systems modelling
• Vensim