South Africa’s winter rainfall region drought: A region in transition?

Abstract

The Western Cape region of South Africa is a key producing area for South African agriculture, with a strong dependence on austral winter rainfall. The past three years have, however, seen extensive drought impacting this region, with significant impacts on agriculture. In this article, we unpack how the drought unfolded, as well as possibilities in predicting winter rainfall. We consider how drought impacted agriculture, looking in depth at two commodities key to the winter rainfall region agricultural sector – namely, wheat and apples; concluding with a brief discussion of implications for the future. Keywords: Drought, Agriculture, Seasonal forecasting, Southern Africa