Construction and validation of predictive model for intraoperative hypothermia in patients received radical gastrectomy for gastric cancer

Abstract

ObjectiveTo construct and verify the risk prediction model for intraoperative hypothermia in patients received radical surgery for gastrointestinal cancer. Methods A total of 276 patients receiving radical gastrointestinal cancer surgery in the Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University from November 2020 to June 2021 were selected by a convenient sampling as the model group. From July to September 2021, 138 patients undergoing radical surgery were served as validation group. The influencing factors of hypothermia were analyzed based on the data in model group, and the model was constructed using logistic regression， which was respectively verified by Hosmer-Lemeshow and AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) for the goodness of fit and prediction of the model. R software was used to establish the line column diagram of validation set for external validation. ResultsThe incidence rate of intraoperative hypothermia in model group was 47.1%. Age, BMI, operation time, bleeding volume, volume of colloid, surgical site and insulation method were ultimately included in the prediction model, and sensitivity, specificity and actual accuracy of the model were 0.754, 0.760 and 75.72%, respectively. In validation group, AUC was 0.820, and the accuracy rate was 74.64%. Conclusion In the patients undergoing radical gastrointestinal cancer surgery, the constructed model can effectively predict the risk of intraoperative hypothermia and provide a reference for the clinical screening of patients with high risk of hypothermia during operation.

Keywords

• radical gastrointestinal cancer surgery
• hypothermia
• insulation method
• colloid volume
• bleeding volume
• heating infusion device