Short-Term Charging Load Prediction of Electric Vehicles with Dynamic Traffic Information Based on a Support Vector Machine

Abstract

This study proposes a charging demand forecasting model for electric vehicles (EVs) that takes into consideration the characteristics of EVs with transportation and mobile load. The model utilizes traffic information to evaluate the influence of traffic systems on driving and charging behavior, specifically focusing on the characteristics of EVs with transportation and mobile load. Additionally, it evaluates the effect of widespread charging on the distribution network. An urban traffic network model is constructed based on the multi-intersection features, and a traffic network–distribution network interaction model is determined according to the size of the urban road network. Type classification simplifies the charging and discharging characteristics of EVs, enabling efficient aggregation of EVs. The authors have built a singular EV transportation model and an EV charging queue model is established. The EV charging demand is forecasted and then used as an input in the support vector machine (SVM) model. The final projection value for EV charging load is determined by taking into account many influencing elements. Compared to the real load, the proposed method’s feasibility and effectiveness are confirmed.

Keywords

• electric vehicle
• support vector machine
• traffic information
• charging load forecast
• distribution network